Part 2 of "Defending Society Against MAGA Tyranny: A Prospectus for Action"
What We Must Prepare For
Part 2 of this series contains the following chapter:
3. What We Must Prepare For
Defending Society Against MAGA Tyranny: A Prospectus for Action is a report from the Labor Network for Sustainability, co-published by ZNetwork.org.
Click here to read the report in full: Defending Society Against MAGA Tyranny: A Prospectus for Action
What We Must Prepare For
It is impossible to know whether the Trump regime will rapidly self-destruct; successfully impose a reign of terror that dominates the U.S. for years or decades to come; or deadlock indefinitely with anti-MAGA forces. In the best case, we will face an exaggerated version of the first Trump administration combined with the broad right-wing program represented by Project 2025. In the worst case, we will face a violent full-scale fascist assault on every aspect of American life. We need to be prepared for either or for something in-between – and for how to survive and overcome them.
Unknowns: Known and Unknown
Trump will be inaugurated into a world order in polycrisis. Unipolar US hegemony has been replaced by multiplying wars, the rise of Great Power conflict, and the decline of international cooperation inside and outside the UN. The polycrisis has also been marked by fragmentation of the global economy and Great Power struggle to dominate global economic networks. International climate protection has become a transparent sham, and major political forces, including Trump himself, deny the reality of climate change. The remaining institutions of democratic rule have been shredded by a transition to transparent plutocracy on the one hand and the rise of movements, parties, and national leaders who resemble the classic fascists of a century ago – similarly the product of burgeoning global disorder. The probable course and effects of Trump and of MAGA must be considered in the light of the polycrisis.[1]
The past dozen years have witnessed the rise of movements in many of countries that resemble the fascism of 1920-1945. They manifest smashing of democratic institutions, contempt for constitutions and laws, utilization of violence for political purposes, scapegoating of racial, ethnic, gender, political, and other minorities, hostility to transnational cooperation and “globalism,” authoritarian dictatorship, and a variety of related characteristics. To include the many manifestations of this phenomenon, rather than exclusively those who proclaim themselves fascists, they may well be characterized as the new “para-fascists.” Donald Trump is a paragon of this new para-fascism. His rise to power has coincided with that of para-fascists around the world. He admires and imitates them, and his behavior in office may in many ways resemble theirs.
Notwithstanding his claims to fix the problems people are facing, Trump in power will only aggravate them. The rubbishing of safeguards provided by democratic governance will amplify irrational policymaking and exacerbate popular feelings of powerlessness and alienation. Outlandish increases in military spending, designed to implement the fantasy of renewed US global domination, will lead instead to ruinous nuclear and conventional arms races. Trump’s style of provocation, deliberate unpredictability, bullying, and unrestrained folly will lead to intensified conflict, strange shifts in alliances, deliberately aggravated chaos, and wars. His energy policies will put climate catastrophe on steroids. This exacerbated polycrisis will produce a self-amplifying feedback loop that will increase the fear and anger that are prime sources – and prime resources — of Trumpism.
Trump’s behavior is consistently inconsistent. It is impulsive, disruptive, shameless, perfidious, and undeterred by predictably disastrous consequences. Trump’s actions, far from achieving their purported objectives, will only compound the chaos of the polycrisis. Conversely, the polycrisis will only compound the irrationality, self-contradiction, and foolishness of Trump’s actions. Trump may propose, but the polycrisis will dispose.
We simply can’t know at this point what will be the balance between extravagant, flamboyant Trump gestures vs. the calculated, steadfast pursuit of the Project 2025 program, largely centered in Congress.
The common assertion that the second Trump regime has been well planned and will be guided by experienced experts and executed has been made a mockery of long before inauguration day. As Karl Rove (of all people) put it in The Wall Street Journal, “Inadequate vetting, impatience, disregard for qualifications and a thirst for revenge have created chaos and controversy for Mr. Trump before he’s even in office. The price for all this will be missed opportunities to shore up popular support for the incoming president.”[2]
Fascist regimes historically have been marked by radically shifting social bases rather than stable interests. Their policies and actions gyrate opportunistically to court social sectors whose support they can recruit at least momentarily. Trump’s whole political career illustrates this tendency. This unpredictability is aggravated by Trump’s personal opportunism and erratically shifting passions and attention. In assembling his cabinet and other top officials, Trump has surrounded himself with yes-men and yes-women who guarantee folly.
A good deal of post-election commentary has aimed to determine why the electorate voted for Trump. Here, too, uncertainty reigns. Specific factors often listed include inflation, Democrats abandoning the working class, racism, sexism, generalized fear of immigration and other perceived threats, many of them rooted in the polycrisis, or simply gullibility to the Trumpian Big Lie. While all of these have some credibility, in a time of swirling emotions it may well be impossible to provide a valid explanation of the vote as a whole, let alone what it portends for elections in the future. But a crucial reality is highlighted by a post-election Reuters/Ipsos poll in mid-December: Barely 40 percent of Americans said their opinion of president-elect Trump was favorable. 55 percent stated that their opinion of him was unfavorable.[3] That indicates a great vulnerability in the Trump regime if its opponents are able to take advantage of his weaknesses.
Trump’s mental and physical health, such as they are, are likely to deteriorate further over the course of his term of office. There is a Constitutional process for removing incapacitated presidents from office, but such a scenario is hardly likely to be voluntarily accepted by Trump or imposed against his will by his coterie as long as he is conscious. Were he replaced by J.D. Vance, unpredictability would only increase.
These known unknowns are likely to be aggravated by a plethora of unknown unknowns. Strategic assessment of the coming MAGA era must be made within this overall context of uncertainty.
Expectables
Within the context of the larger unknowns, some things are highly probable. The election of Donald Trump will usher in a period of chaos, impoverishment, cruelty, and war. MAGA will attempt to intimidate and silence all who attempt to hold Trump and Trumpism accountable for the horrors they bring about. Like other efforts to impose tyranny, it will attempt to eliminate all potential barriers to the policies and whims of Trump and his followers.
We can reasonably expect that Donald Trump will continue to be a self-aggrandizing person pursuing his own wealth and power. We know that the Trump administration will continue to be filled with people pursuing their personal interests and those of a mélange of political cliques, corporations, industries, and foreign countries. Trumpism also incorporates a broader rightwing vision of restructuring the institutions of American society to eliminate all barriers to the self-aggrandizement of the rich and powerful. When Trump feels vulnerable, we can count on him to resort to “alarms and diversions” intended to distract from any tendency of the people to awaken to reality – witness, his ludicrous claim that Haitian immigrants in Springfield were eating their neighbor’s dogs and cats.
Based on the statements and records of Trump and those around him, we can expect four main foci of MAGA action: attacks on anything that might potentially limit their power; scapegoating and oppression of stigmatized groups; redistribution of wealth upward; and attacks on the world and its peoples, ostensibly designed to increase American wealth and power, but often in fact aiming to aggrandize Trump’s ego and political support and to create wealth for a favored few.
Attacks on barriers to MAGA power
- Democratic institutions are likely to be under continuous attack in what will amount to a “creeping coup.” The plans for crippling and even dismantling all limits on presidential power have been laid out in detail in The 2025 Project, which Princeton professor Kim Lane Scheppele described as a blueprint for autocracy. “It’s a direct copy of the plan that Viktor Orban used to take over the Hungarian government in 2010.” It includes placing all independent government agencies, including the FBI and Department of Justice, under direct presidential control; purging government employees considered “disloyal” to the president; and deploying the military against American citizens under the Insurrection Act.[4]
- Republicans, especially in the US Senate, have been one of the first targets of the incoming Trump administration. The unsuccessful attempt to appoint Matt Gaetz – scourge of Republican Senators – as Attorney General illustrates Trump’s preoccupation with bringing Republicans to heel, as well as their intermittent resistance to his doing so.
- Congress, as a Constitutionally mandated “check” on presidential power, is already a prime target, as indicated by Trump’s demand that cabinet appointments not be subject to Senatorial “advise and consent” or even subject to FBI background checks. There has been some initial effort to preserve some of the institutional prerogatives of Congress, indicated by the pushback against a few of Trump’s nominations; this is likely to be a continuing arena of contestation throughout the Trump regime.
- The military also is emerging as a prime Trump target, as indicated by his militarily-ludicrous appointment of a totally unqualified, virulent critic of the top brass as Secretary of Defense and the threat to fire and even court-martial top generals. (It is an intriguing historical parallel that Trump-foreshadowing Sen. Joseph McCarthy also made the US Army one of his leading targets.)
- Civil servants and other government employees have been identified as a primary target. Project 2025 proposed to make thousands of civil servants subject to firing without just cause by the president. Trump nominees have threatened to fire as many as one-third of federal employees.
- Organized labor is a prime target for much of Trump World. Elon Musk is suing to have the National Labor Relations Act, the foundation of American labor law, declared unconstitutional. The 2025 Project includes numerous proposals to weaken unions and make them easy prey for employers who wish to gut or eliminate them. Some conflict may ensue around these objectives, since organized workers have means of power rooted in their workplace organizations and Trump feels some need to curry favor with some labor leaders, as indicated by his designation of Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor, in part on the recommendation of Teamsters’ president Sean O’Brien.
- Science, and rationality more broadly, has been and is likely to remain a prime target. The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and other advocates of bizarre anti-scientific doctrines and practices may seem merely ridiculous, but in fact a belief in science and reason is one of the greatest barriers to MAGA’s ultimate power. Flouting science, reason, and reality is likely to produce implausible weapons systems that are promoted as means of global domination but in fact will have as their primary achievement the enrichment of Trump’s cronies. Scientifically invalid responses to diseases may cause large numbers of deaths.
- Limits on violence have been a specific Trump target. Trump’s pledge to pardon the January 6th insurrectionist criminals, his celebration of vigilante violence, and his appointments for Attorney General and FBI director give little indication that there will be any attempt to maintain even a limited amount law and order, rather than “law enforcement” to enforce the will of a tyrant.
Attacks scapegoating stigmatized groups
- Immigrants have been a consistent Trump target since his first rise to prominence. He says he will find and expel the 11 million undocumented immigrants who live in the US. While he says this will apply first to “criminals,” under MAGA doctrine all 11 million people living in the US without legal papers are in effect criminals. The cost and chaos of expelling even a few percent of those 11 million people, and the disruption to the US economy, the food chain, and employers’ profits, will undoubtedly lead to multifaceted conflict around any such policy. But Trump’s commitment to expulsions ensures that an effort will be made to expel tens of thousands if not millions of them.
- LGBTQ+ people, and above all transexuals, have been another prime target. Notwithstanding claims to a religious basis, this is primarily just an appeal to bigotry against a denigrated group.
- Women have been a constant and particularly denigrated Trump target. The idea that women have no rights that men are bound to respect has been embodied in the denial of women’s right to control their own bodies, Trump’s flaunting of sexual abuse of women, and his many nominations of sexual abusers to high positions. New embodiments of female de-liberation may well be in the offing.
- People of color have been a Trump target from his first foray into the political arena with his false claims against the so-called “Central Park Five” to his asking why the military couldn’t just shoot Black Lives Matter demonstrators in the legs.
- The Left – or whatever Trump chooses to characterize as “the Left” – has been a continuous target for his entire political career. Vilification as “Leftists,” vigilante attacks, harassment, persecution, prosecution, and police and military violence are likely to be mobilized to a greater or lesser extent against any Trump opponents. Such actions are already being perpetrated against opponents of Israeli genocide in Palestine; top Trump nominees advocate even more extreme measures.
- Not-yet-identified scapegoats will predictably become the targets of future Trump assaults.
Redistribution upward
- Massive tax cuts for the wealthy are likely to be among Trump’s first priorities, and they are likely to meet little resistance even from purportedly conservative Republican “budget hawks” in Congress.
- Deregulation will enrich the haves and impoverish the have-nots, as well as fomenting market chaos.
- Government agencies and services, ranging from the Weather Bureau’s forecasts, to public health measures like vaccinations, to provision of education, food, housing, healthcare, and many others have been singled out for cutting or elimination by Project 2025 and Trump appointees, and are likely to also be targets for Congressional action.
- Gutting of poverty reduction and healthcare programs will lead to sickness and death.
- Crony capitalism, oligarchy, and kleptocracy will utilize innumerable opportunities to use autocratic government power to enrich those with access to it.
- Economic chaos is likely to result from Trump’s incoherent, self-contradictory, and illusion-based economic policies, notably his obsession with tariffs. The result will be impoverishment for working and poor people, plus opportunities for vast kleptocratic enrichment by those close to power.
War on the world
- International institutions that offer some degree, however fragile, of collective security and collective problem-solving are priority targets of Trump’s wrath. His regime will attempt the disempower or even destroy the United Nations, the World Court, the International Court of Justice, the international climate protection regime, cooperative international public health efforts, international trade and financial agreements, and similar alleged impediments to “putting America first.”
- Unexpected verbal, economic, and military attacks are a normal part of Trump’s playbook, as his out-of-the-blue attacks on Mexico and Canada illustrate. Their motivation is rarely national wellbeing, but rather proving by intimidation and bullying that he is putting American first and making America great again. They enact short-term political, financial, and ego interests, not long-term national interests. This may be deeply harmful to American imperialism in the long run, but that is unlikely to deter them.
- Weird shifts of alliances are another Trump likelihood. His “tilt” away from NATO and the EU and toward Russia, and his support for territorial concessions to Russia by Ukraine, indicate the probable unreliability and perfidy of his international alignments.
- Colossal military spending is likely to be high on both the Trump and the Congressional Republican agendas. These are likely to include new weapons systems based on imaginary fantasies of global military domination. Far from establishing global US domination, they are likely instead to provoke unlimited arms races. Whatever its military futility, this will contribute substantially to the enrichment of military-industrial oligarchs on all sides.
- Global redistribution upward will no doubt be a hallmark of the Trump era. Even the very modest programs currently attempting to fight global poverty will be gutted. Perhaps even more seriously, aspects of the global economy that have made it possible for many nations (notably China) to “bootstrap” their way to economic wealth are likely to be undermined on the grounds that such countries are “robbing America.”
- Climate denialism will continue to be a constant Trumpian theme – and his policies will both gut the modest current efforts to restrain climate destruction and radically expand the extraction and burning of climate-destroying fossil fuels. Escalating climate catastrophe will be the inevitable result.
Of course, what will happen in the MAGA era will be determined not just by what Trump does, but also by what various other actors do. That is crucial but also uncertain. Will lawyers, judges, corporate executives, doctors, civil servants, military brass and soldiers, union members, and others simply go along with greater or less enthusiasm? Or will they at some point, out of social responsibility or self-interest or both, become impediments to the MAGA juggernaut?
Most important, what will those affected as individuals, as constituencies, and as members of society do — and when? The key to defeating the MAGA juggernaut is popular mobilization. But when people will become disaffected and what actions they will be willing to take is not predictable. Some estimates are highly optimistic; others stress the fatigue and defeatism of Trump opponents. Strategy must be based on the developing movement of the people; tactics must recognize its real state at any one time while nourishing its future development.
We have no way to know how long it will take to overcome Trump and Trumpism. His regime and its successors could last for decades – consider Orban or Sisi. Alternatively, they could rapidly succumb to popular disenchantment and internal contradictions. While elections two and four years from now provide important milestones, the timeframe for the struggle against Trump will depend primarily on the gradual or rapid development of buyer’s remorse – or even a Great Repudiation — in which the American people decide to act decisively to eliminate him.
[1] For further analysis of Trump and the polycrisis, see Jeremy Brecher, “Trump, Trumpism, and the Polycrisis,” Labor Network for Sustainability, November 23, 2024. https://www.labor4sustainability.org/strike/trump-trumpism-and-the-polycrisis/
[2] Karl Rove, “Trump Sends Clowns to Cabinet Confirmation Circus,” Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-sends-clowns-to-confirmation-circus-mishandled-nominations-gaetz-hegseth-gabbard-not-his-only-mistakes-c43df814?mod=hp_opin_pos_0
[3] Tara Suter, “Less than half of Americans say opinion of Trump is favorable: Poll,” The Hill, December 17, 2024. Less than half of Americans say opinion of Trump is favorable: Poll
[4] Thomas B. Edsall, “This Is What You Get When Fear Mixes With Money,” New York Times, April 10, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/opinion/trump-donors-project-2025.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jU0.T48U.XULEfvvhlOeN&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&ugrp=u&sgrp=c-cb
Jeremy Brecher is a co-founder and senior strategic advisor for the Labor Network for Sustainability. He is the author of more than a dozen books on labor and social movements, including Strike! Common Preservation in a Time of Mutual Destruction, and The Green New Deal from Below.
The mission of the Labor Network for Sustainability is to be a relentless force for urgent, science-based climate action by building a powerful labor-climate movement to secure an ecologically sustainable and economically just future where everyone can make a living on a living planet.
https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/what-we-must-prepare-for/
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