We need to BAN top executive branch employees from prediction market betting

 We need to BAN top executive branch employees from prediction market betting 

• CREW HQ 

  From:info@citizensforethics.org

  
  

  To:Mark M Giese

  Wed, Jun 3 2026 at 11:09 AM

  Signature Requested:  Name: Mark ZIP: Your City SIGNATURE: NOT RECORDED Mark, Recent reports of potential insider trading by executive branch employees on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have raised concerns about officials leveraging access to non-public information about government operations for personal profit. Not only is insider trading a violation of ethics law, but it also undermines the American people’s trust in government and poses a risk to national security. That’s why CREW sent a letter to the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) urging it to completely prohibit top executive-branch employees from using prediction markets and to bar career civil servants from placing bets on political or military events. Since Kalshi became the first government regulated prediction market in 2020, the industry has grown from a monthly transaction volume of just over $1 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026. A recent BBC analysis found a consistent pattern of trading spikes on prediction markets hours or even minutes before a major announcement came from the president. This includes bets on the timing of airstrikes in Iran, bets on the ouster of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just before his assassination and bets on oil prices just before an Iranian ceasefire announcement. Alarmingly, many of these bets were placed by new accounts with little or no other trading activity, which could indicate insider trading. Bets like these could tip off foreign adversaries, potentially undermining American military operations and putting national security at risk. And when officials stand to profit from those decisions, it raises serious concerns that they could shape policy to move markets—rather than act in the country’s best interests. To protect our democracy and national security, CREW is urging OGE to lead an executive branch effort to regulate the use of prediction markets by executive branch appointees and career civil servants and to institute this needed ban.